← Serie B 2013-14 · Fri, May 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 75% | 47% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 27% | 5.04 | value: +39% |
| Pescara win | 5% | 26% | 17.95 | value: +359% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 698.00 | 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1582.40 | 1454.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.02 | -10.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 69.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.27 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |