← Serie B 2013-14 · Sun, May 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 53% | 32% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.83 | value: +4% |
| Pescara win | 22% | 41% | 4.50 | value: +85% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 113.00 | 450.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1453.20 | 1573.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.20 | 40.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 51.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.55 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.85 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |