← Serie B 2013-14 · Sun, May 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brescia win | 65% | 57% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.72 | value: +9% |
| Juve Stabia win | 14% | 20% | 7.05 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 328.00 | 2001.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1480.49 | 1307.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.20 | -11.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 53.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 18.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.47 |
| state index | -0.16 | -2.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |