← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trapani win | 38% | 47% | 2.59 | value: +22% |
| Ternana win | 31% | 26% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trapani | Ternana |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1781.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1497.51 | 1463.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.82 | -6.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 54.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.23 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |