← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 61% | 39% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 31% | 4.05 | value: +27% |
| Reggina win | 15% | 30% | 6.49 | value: +94% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reggina | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 167.00 | 623.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1365.87 | 1519.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.53 | -2.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 29.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.59 |
| state index | -1.49 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |