← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 60% | 63% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.11 | value: +4% |
| Carpi win | 16% | 11% | 6.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Palermo | Carpi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 258.00 | 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1676.42 | 1491.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.65 | 21.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 82.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.33 |
| state index | 1.01 | 0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |