← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 51% | 44% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.64 | value: +8% |
| Avellino win | 23% | 27% | 4.32 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Avellino |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 442.00 | 685.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1567.64 | 1460.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.40 | 16.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 59.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.51 | 1.44 |
| state index | 0.76 | -0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |