← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 60% | 43% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.31 | value: +14% |
| Juve Stabia win | 17% | 31% | 5.76 | value: +78% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1993.00 | 867.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1304.08 | 1488.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.09 | -22.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 18.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.46 | 1.49 |
| state index | -2.01 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |