← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 66% | 47% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.18 | value: +17% |
| Novara win | 10% | 25% | 9.27 | value: +132% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Novara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 685.00 | 105.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1576.33 | 1472.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.47 | 6.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 65.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.10 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |