← Serie B 2013-14 · Tue, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 53% | 41% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.49 | fair |
| Varese win | 19% | 31% | 5.03 | value: +56% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Varese |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 163.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1473.42 | 1407.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.77 | -59.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 54.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.13 |
| state index | -0.07 | -1.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |