← Serie B 2013-14 · Tue, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara win | 69% | 58% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 23% | 5.02 | value: +17% |
| Juve Stabia win | 11% | 18% | 8.64 | value: +59% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Novara | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 101.00 | 1989.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1465.95 | 1310.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.56 | -11.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 40.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 0.47 |
| state index | -0.50 | -1.99 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |