← Serie B 2013-14 · Tue, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 42% | 58% | 2.32 | value: +34% ⚠ |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.16 | fair |
| Cittadella win | 27% | 15% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cittadella | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 254.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1456.07 | 1667.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 56.01 | 24.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 45.00 | 79.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 2.08 |
| state index | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |