← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varese win | 41% | 40% | 2.39 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.17 | fair |
| Carpi win | 28% | 31% | 3.44 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Varese | Carpi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 313.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1422.55 | 1486.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.15 | 30.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 43.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.32 |
| state index | -0.99 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |