← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 57% | 44% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.87 | value: +6% |
| Novara win | 18% | 29% | 5.40 | value: +55% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Novara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 435.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1548.63 | 1475.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.73 | -3.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 53.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.08 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |