← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino win | 45% | 42% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.18 | fair |
| Spezia win | 24% | 27% | 4.04 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Avellino | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 678.00 | 160.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1446.70 | 1487.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.39 | 24.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 52.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.46 |
| state index | -0.43 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |