← Serie B 2013-14 · Fri, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova win | 43% | 33% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Cesena win | 26% | 36% | 3.73 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Padova | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1043.00 | 615.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1421.63 | 1499.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.24 | -27.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 35.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.51 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |