← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 43% | 48% | 2.23 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 35% | 30% | 2.76 | fair |
| Novara win | 21% | 22% | 4.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Novara | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 91.00 | 244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1482.00 | 1667.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.62 | 37.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 40.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.08 |
| state index | -0.19 | 1.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |