← Serie B 2013-14 · Fri, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 62% | 46% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.40 | value: +25% |
| Reggina win | 15% | 25% | 6.30 | value: +60% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Reggina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 152.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1482.09 | 1373.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.66 | -14.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 51.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 0.78 |
| state index | -0.00 | -1.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |