← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena win | 51% | 60% | 1.91 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.31 | fair |
| Carpi win | 20% | 15% | 4.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Siena | Carpi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 299.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1584.31 | 1469.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.17 | 4.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 59.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.29 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |