← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 56% | 52% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.56 | fair |
| Spezia win | 17% | 20% | 5.73 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 664.00 | 146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1552.38 | 1492.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.70 | 22.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 56.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.46 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |