← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 38% | 43% | 2.54 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 35% | 30% | 2.75 | fair |
| Brescia win | 27% | 26% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cesena | Brescia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 602.00 | 299.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1510.63 | 1474.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.10 | 10.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 53.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.51 | 1.31 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |