← Serie B 2013-14 · Fri, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 49% | 40% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.41 | value: +6% |
| Ternana win | 22% | 29% | 4.45 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Ternana |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 420.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1532.17 | 1478.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.10 | -9.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 49.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.26 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |