← Serie B 2013-14 · Thu, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara win | 40% | 38% | 2.45 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.18 | fair |
| Trapani win | 30% | 34% | 3.29 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Novara | Trapani |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 75.00 | 1751.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1466.07 | 1517.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.40 | -26.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 36.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.44 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |