← Serie B 2013-14 · Thu, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino win | 46% | 43% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.34 | fair |
| Juve Stabia win | 25% | 27% | 3.89 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Avellino |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1963.00 | 655.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1317.17 | 1444.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.24 | -16.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 16.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.47 | 1.41 |
| state index | -1.75 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |