← Serie B 2013-14 · Thu, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carpi win | 40% | 34% | 2.45 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.07 | fair |
| Modena win | 28% | 35% | 3.44 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carpi | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 290.00 | 412.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1469.92 | 1532.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.59 | 34.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 44.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.41 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |