← Serie B 2013-14 · Thu, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brescia win | 47% | 48% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.07 | fair |
| Padova win | 21% | 25% | 4.55 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 290.00 | 1021.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1494.97 | 1416.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.68 | -2.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 46.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 0.94 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |