← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena win | 55% | 58% | 1.79 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Virtus Lanciano win | 17% | 16% | 5.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Siena | Virtus Lanciano |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1590.96 | 1456.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.04 | -38.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 56.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.45 |
| state index | 0.53 | -1.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |