← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latina win | 46% | 39% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 34% | 2.92 | fair |
| Novara win | 20% | 27% | 4.85 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Latina | Novara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 223.00 | 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1522.11 | 1478.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.48 | -14.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 51.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.09 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |