← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 38% | 45% | 2.58 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Carpi win | 31% | 27% | 3.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Carpi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 832.00 | 285.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1514.78 | 1466.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.18 | -18.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 51.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.30 |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |