← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino win | 44% | 44% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 35% | 30% | 2.78 | fair |
| Brescia win | 21% | 26% | 4.58 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Avellino | Brescia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 650.00 | 285.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1454.96 | 1484.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.52 | -5.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 48.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.30 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |