← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Lanciano win | 39% | 34% | 2.51 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 31% | 2.90 | fair |
| Modena win | 27% | 35% | 3.55 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Virtus Lanciano | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 400.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1472.92 | 1510.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.39 | 12.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 48.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.31 |
| state index | -0.71 | 0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |