← Serie B 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varese win | 39% | 42% | 2.49 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.16 | fair |
| Juve Stabia win | 30% | 31% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Varese |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1951.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1335.00 | 1454.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.19 | -27.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 16.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| state index | -1.61 | -0.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |