← Serie B 2012-13 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 40% | 40% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 29% | 2.80 | fair |
| Juve Stabia win | 27% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 504.00 | 1630.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1471.87 | 1438.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.90 | -49.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 54.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.20 |
| state index | -0.01 | -1.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |