← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 39% | 47% | 2.38 | value: +12% |
| Livorno win | 32% | 25% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Livorno |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 351.00 | 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1625.29 | 1596.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.87 | 9.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| league points | 82.00 | 80.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.95 |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |