← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 42% | 41% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
| Grosseto win | 29% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grosseto | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1417.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1357.07 | 1523.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.32 | 24.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 31.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.46 |
| state index | -1.42 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |