← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cittadella win | 43% | 43% | 2.15 | fair |
| Ascoli win | 29% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cittadella | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 929.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1409.45 | 1395.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.38 | -38.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 47.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.02 |
| state index | -0.72 | -1.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |