← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 54% | 52% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| PRO Vercelli win | 18% | 19% | 6.00 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cesena | PRO Vercelli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 259.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1463.47 | 1361.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.79 | -12.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 49.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.78 |
| state index | -0.27 | -1.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |