← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brescia win | 48% | 37% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| Varese win | 24% | 32% | 3.75 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | Varese |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 534.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1509.17 | 1514.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.73 | 1.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 59.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.49 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |