← Serie B 2012-13 · Mon, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varese win | 69% | 51% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 28% | 4.82 | value: +34% |
| Crotone win | 11% | 22% | 9.21 | value: +100% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Varese | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 498.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1517.97 | 1468.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.14 | 5.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 60.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.32 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |