← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 51% | 50% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
| Virtus Lanciano win | 21% | 23% | 4.71 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Virtus Lanciano | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 344.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1459.36 | 1628.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.53 | -8.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 46.00 | 81.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 2.02 |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |