← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggina win | 81% | 48% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 28% | 7.13 | value: +100% |
| Grosseto win | 6% | 24% | 16.78 | value: +299% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reggina | Grosseto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 314.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1450.09 | 1363.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.91 | -20.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| league points | 47.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.78 |
| state index | -0.47 | -1.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |