← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara win | 72% | 64% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | 5.15 | value: +15% |
| PRO Vercelli win | 9% | 14% | 11.07 | value: +51% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PRO Vercelli | Novara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1366.57 | 1592.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.54 | -10.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| league points | 32.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.57 |
| state index | -0.95 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |