← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 61% | 48% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 29% | 4.20 | value: +20% |
| Juve Stabia win | 16% | 23% | 6.18 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juve Stabia | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1622.00 | 922.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1450.13 | 1632.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.37 | 16.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 49.00 | 78.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.95 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.98 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |