← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 61% | 51% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.00 | fair |
| Cittadella win | 15% | 23% | 6.54 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Cittadella |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 314.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1563.43 | 1414.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.17 | -5.96 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 69.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.18 |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.59 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |