← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 49% | 30% | 1.80 | fair |
| Bari win | 40% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +6% |
| Cesena win | 11% | 23% | 8.00 | value: +82% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1410.00 | 252.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1516.27 | 1470.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.87 | -3.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 57.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.23 |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |