← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli win | 41% | 32% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 37% | 3.09 | value: +13% |
| Ternana win | 27% | 31% | 3.56 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ascoli | Ternana |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 922.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1395.64 | 1446.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -50.02 | 5.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 41.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.02 | 1.23 |
| state index | -1.54 | -0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |