← Serie B 2012-13 · Mon, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 68% | 57% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 26% | 4.73 | value: +22% |
| Padova win | 11% | 18% | 8.52 | value: +50% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 339.00 | 675.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1634.16 | 1462.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.93 | 24.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| league points | 80.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.31 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |