← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 44% | 41% | 2.24 | fair |
| Vicenza win | 29% | 29% | 3.37 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.55 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vicenza | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 307.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1391.33 | 1549.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 38.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.69 |
| state index | -0.55 | 0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |