← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 43% | 26% | 2.10 | fair |
| Spezia win | 34% | 46% | 2.75 | value: +26% |
| Virtus Lanciano win | 23% | 28% | 4.60 | value: +29% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Virtus Lanciano |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 70.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1432.05 | 1458.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.81 | -10.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 48.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.15 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |