← Serie B 2012-13 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara win | 55% | 55% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.45 | fair |
| Bari win | 16% | 19% | 6.01 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Novara | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 184.00 | 1403.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1606.46 | 1501.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.35 | 0.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| league points | 63.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.38 |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |